Izimali ze-Lithium zakhala ngaphezulu kuka 7%! Liya kuba khona ukunyuka kwizindleko zokugcina amandla?

Ngokwemfundo yomthengi, nge 10 Novemba, igcinelelwa le-lithium carbonate (kwiseshule yokuqala) yakhala ngama-3,050 CNY ngaton ehlukileyo kuye yestandla, ngelixa igcinelelwa lithathe isilinganiso se-83,900 CNY ngaton. Kwesikhathi esifanayo, umrholo wokuthengisa ngokuphucula kwe-lithium carbonate uphucule ngaphezulu kuka 7%, wafika kumaxabiso aphezulu kangakanaba ngamahluko amathathu.

Ukukhala kwegcinelelwa ye-lithium carbonate kukhuselwe yiindawo ezihlawulayo, ikakhulu ubomi obungcono kunokwenzeka kumthengi wokugcina amandla. Ngobuso bokuba ubomi bukhokelela, iindlela zokudluliswa kwegcinelelwa ziya kubonakala ngokuvakalayo emgangathweni wokugcina amandla.

iividi le-Lithium Carbonate Zibuyisela, Iividi ze-Cell ye-Energy Storage Zikhumbula Etyhabheni

Kusukwa kumphefumlo ka-Okthoba, iividi ze-lithium carbonate zazibonisa ubuyiso obukhulu. Ividi embindini yemoto ye-lithium carbonate ibe yakhula ukusuka kwi-73,000 CNY ngaton eNgcamla 15 uye kwi-81,000 CNY ngaton eNovemba 3. Emva kokuphaphazeka kancinci ku-80,400 CNY ngaton kwinkolo, ibuyisile kwi-80,750 CNY ngaton kwinkolo yesishiyagalombili, ekubonisa ukongeza ngexesha elipheleleyo ngokutshanje kwe-CNY 350 ngaton.

Ukukhangela kwegunya kubonisa ukuba ngaphandle kwehlobo eliselindelweyo ngoJulayi nogoAgasti, okwakusekelwe kumthetho wasezulwini "anti-involution" kunye nokunciphisa nokuphula kwezimali eziqhuba i-lithium e-Jiangxi, lo mgca wokunyuka kweminyaka kusuka kuthanda olunzulu lwesilinganiso kwaye kuthandwa ngokunxulumene kumthengiso. Ngokuchasene, umrhuba wobumbane obutsha obusetyenziswayo ubuya ekhuthazeka, ngelishwa imbuya yomrhuba wokugcina kwegunya ibuyekile enkulu. Ngokufanayo, izidingo zokunciphisa isimo sokuphatha kumgangatho wasezolwini kumhla waseMbulungu kunye nokuphula kwezilala ezifutshane kuthintana emva kwezinyangwana.

Kwayehlakule, uJ.P. Morgan wakhupha ukukhula kwegcinezelo lebhatere lokugcina kumthwalo we-2025/26 ngama-50% kunye nama-43%, ngalendlela yonke, wathatha indlela yokuba ibe yinto engenanto ekaphelileyo kumthwalo wokugcina kumthetho ophakathi komthetho de umthetho odluleyo. Kuthiwa ukuba iziphumo zegcinezelo lebhatere lokugcina zizakuvinga i-1,630 GWh ngo-2030. Inkampani enye ihlanganisa ukuba iziphumo zegcinezelo lebhatere lokugcina ngo-2026 ziya kuchanya ngaphezu kweminyaka engu-600 GWh kunye ne-2024, okulingana nokudinga kwezibuko ezingaphezu kwe-350,000 tons yenkqubo yelicasiyamthi.

Ngokwephantsi kwezimali zokugcina i-enerji, izimali zibalulekile kakhulu, ngomgama wemalimbi yezimali ze-314Ah ne-280Ah eziphakathi kwegama eliphezulu. Imithetho ibonisa ukuba ngoOkthoba, umgama wemali yeseliko sokugcina i-enerji ye-314Ah waye ngu-0.272–0.342 CNY/Wh, nomalinganiso wemali ngu-0.3076 CNY/Wh. Emva kokufika kuNovemba, umalinganiso wemali weziliko ze-314Ah wadityholwa ngokuncinane ku-0.308 CNY/Wh. Ukusuka ngoOkthoba, imali yesiliko sokugcina i-enerji ye-280Ah isebenza ngokupheleleyo phakathi kwe-0.274–0.332 CNY/Wh, okungumalinganiso wama-0.303 CNY/Wh.

▋ Ukwanda okuncinane kumalinganiso wemali yokugcina i-enerji yomnotho nasebhengweni

Imithetho ibonisa ukuba umalinganiso wemali wesiliko esihlanganisiweyo sokugcina i-enerji yomnotho nasebhengweni (215 kWh) wadala ngokuncinane kusuka kuma-0.65 CNY/Wh ngoSeptemba ku-0.63 CNY/Wh ngoOkthoba. Umgaqo wemali wawunobungakanani phakathi kwe-0.51–0.73 CNY/Wh, ubonisa indlela eqinisekileyo.

Nangona iindleko zocingo ziya kude, ixabiso eligqithileyo lezixhobo zokugcina imithwalo yejiqoza kunye neendawo ezisebenzayo ayizange libe ngomgwebo wokusuka kodwa lithetha ukuba kukhona ubume obutsha kwiimeko eziphatha ngaphakathi yalesi sifundo. Ngoko kukhona inani elikhulu kumthengi, ukuthembana okuphindaphindwayo kwemveliso, kunye nesicwangciso sezisivuno zokulahla ixabiso lejelektrikithi ngexesha elithile emazweni onke ngonyaka ova, ukunyuswa kumasebelelo ekugcineni i-jiqoza kwindawo enezimiso kunye neyasebenzo kuyakholokeza ngokulinganayo. Kukuxhasa okuqukumbeka kumaceba amilengene, amaxesha aninzi asemgangathweni abaxhaselana ngokulahla ixabiso, kunye namaxesha angamaqhezu apho aphinde aphinde akhokelele kubuncinci, bakhokelela ngokulingana nokulahla ixabiso elincinci olutholakeleyo kucingo.